Three Factors for the New Year - January Allocation

Allocation Percentages for January 2023
F Fund

0%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

100%

Happy New Year!  Here is to a better year than 2022.  We ended the month and the year on a very weak note, and I’m not very positive about it. We just had the worst year since the Great Recession and a market that has been wrestling with shock after shock. I’m not going to try and do what many other news blogs and futurists do and predict market events over the next 12 months, but I will be hypothesizing on some of the major issues that will impact the market.

 

1) The Russo-Ukraine War.  This war will continue to destroy budgets, cause uncertainty in energy prices, and be a general thorn in our side until a resolution is reached.  I’m not very impressed by the Russian forces, and if the news I heard is to be believed, they are running out of ammunition and their casualty rate is not sustainable. However, losing may not be an option for Putin, and unfortunately, a replacement for him could be worse (i.e., more belligerent). 

 

2) Congressional Gridlock.  With a slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives, new legislation may not make it through Congress.  If gridlock does occur, it will be a short term (i.e., less than 6 months) disruption as companies adjust their planning assumptions to the reality of desired legislation stalling in Congress.

 

3) Stagflation/Inflation/Recovery.  There are plenty of predictions for each of these outcomes.  I plan on being prepared for each of these possibilities with plenty of liquid assets to cover expenses for a six-month period (e.g., if I were on a complete retirement income profile, I would make sure I did not have all of my retirement in the market for needs less than 6 months out).  Additionally, with the market being at a low point, I will take advantage of the dips and buy low. 

 

As you can read above, I’m not positive on the US economy at the current moment, nor am I confident 2023 will be a banner year.  My models and research do point to a stronger performance in the I Fund for at least the short term.  I am slightly positive on the International Markets as they have had time to adjust to some of the more recent shocks (i.e., China unrest and energy spikes) and may be more settled than what we are seeing in the C and S Funds. 

 

Thank you to all of my subscribers, I wish you a Happy New Year, and Keep Calm and Keep Investing!    

           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 L 2075 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2025-06-30 27.9579 54.0610 16.3639 62.4426 17.2069 37.9654 19.3201 19.3178 19.3155 11.4479 10.0000 19.1711 20.2603 98.6743 92.0521 49.7247
2025-06-26 27.8773 53.7489 16.2611 62.0189 17.0827 37.6752 19.1450 19.1428 19.1404 11.3441 0.0000 19.1616 20.2330 97.6432 91.4042 49.3273
Daily Change 0.29%0.58%0.63%0.68%0.73%0.77%0.91%0.91%0.91%0.92%INF%0.05%0.13%1.06%0.71%0.81%
Month to Date 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Year to Date 4.55%7.17%7.62%8.06%8.44%8.79%9.88%9.88%9.88%9.9%0%2.22%4.02%6.18%2.11%18.69%
Details L Income L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 L 2075 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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