Three Factors for the New Year - January Allocation

Allocation Percentages for January 2023
F Fund

0%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

100%

Happy New Year!  Here is to a better year than 2022.  We ended the month and the year on a very weak note, and I’m not very positive about it. We just had the worst year since the Great Recession and a market that has been wrestling with shock after shock. I’m not going to try and do what many other news blogs and futurists do and predict market events over the next 12 months, but I will be hypothesizing on some of the major issues that will impact the market.

 

1) The Russo-Ukraine War.  This war will continue to destroy budgets, cause uncertainty in energy prices, and be a general thorn in our side until a resolution is reached.  I’m not very impressed by the Russian forces, and if the news I heard is to be believed, they are running out of ammunition and their casualty rate is not sustainable. However, losing may not be an option for Putin, and unfortunately, a replacement for him could be worse (i.e., more belligerent). 

 

2) Congressional Gridlock.  With a slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives, new legislation may not make it through Congress.  If gridlock does occur, it will be a short term (i.e., less than 6 months) disruption as companies adjust their planning assumptions to the reality of desired legislation stalling in Congress.

 

3) Stagflation/Inflation/Recovery.  There are plenty of predictions for each of these outcomes.  I plan on being prepared for each of these possibilities with plenty of liquid assets to cover expenses for a six-month period (e.g., if I were on a complete retirement income profile, I would make sure I did not have all of my retirement in the market for needs less than 6 months out).  Additionally, with the market being at a low point, I will take advantage of the dips and buy low. 

 

As you can read above, I’m not positive on the US economy at the current moment, nor am I confident 2023 will be a banner year.  My models and research do point to a stronger performance in the I Fund for at least the short term.  I am slightly positive on the International Markets as they have had time to adjust to some of the more recent shocks (i.e., China unrest and energy spikes) and may be more settled than what we are seeing in the C and S Funds. 

 

Thank you to all of my subscribers, I wish you a Happy New Year, and Keep Calm and Keep Investing!    

           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2024-11-22 26.8071 13.8108 51.0235 15.4040 58.6345 16.1249 35.5088 17.9670 17.9648 17.9624 10.6429 18.6680 19.5294 94.1871 96.2559 42.6555
2024-11-21 26.7630 13.7847 50.8402 15.3435 58.3842 16.0512 35.3363 17.8624 17.8602 17.8579 10.5814 18.6658 19.5205 93.8581 94.6413 42.4370
Daily Change 0.16%0.19%0.36%0.39%0.43%0.46%0.49%0.59%0.59%0.59%0.58%0.01%0.05%0.35%1.71%0.51%
Month to Date 1.08%1.22%2.18%2.37%2.56%2.72%2.89%3.49%3.49%3.49%3.46%0.26%-0.33%4.74%11.13%-1.08%
Year to Date 7.64%8.67%12.8%13.65%14.52%15.26%16.02%18.82%18.82%18.82%0%3.92%1.6%26.66%24.85%6.16%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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