February 2021

Allocation Percentages for February 2021
F Fund

100%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

0%

I?ll get right to the point. I?m moving all my new contributions and existing TSP investments to the F Fund for February. I am concerned enough about the moves in the market right now that any upside gains we might see in February would come with significant risk. January was a solid month for the S Fund, but I see systemic risk right now causing significant levels of uncertainty, and with uncertainty comes volatility and risk. The contributors to this uncertainty are as follows: - Game Stop. Not the company per se, but what we discovered about the market dynamics facing us in 2021. The traders exploited a hedge fund taking excessive risk, and I think a traffic accident is going to happen ahead of us. The drivers of this accident are (1) Low interest rates (drives asset inflation), (2) Stimulus checks (free money (not unlike low interest rates), (3) Newly tapped communication methods (hive mind) (4) Lockdown (limited outlets for disposable income - bars, trips, etc.), and last, but not least, (5) Populism (rebellion against the system, no matter the consequences). Investigations and new regulations have been demanded, which can be highly disruptive as everyone will have to adapt to the new changes. - Executive Orders (EO). President Biden has signed over 24 EOs. Unfortunately, unlike actual laws, EOs are more ambiguous, lack legal standing in some cases, and can cause legal actions creating more uncertainty on certain industries, Oil and Gas, just to name one. If I was a trader, I would say get into the market and exploit the volatility, but I?m not. I want certainty and low volatility. I?m going to pump the breaks as I just saw a Ford Mustang cut off a Ferrari. I continue to keep investing, just in the bonds and the F Fund for now.
           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2025-03-28 26.8594 13.8120 50.1902 15.1042 57.3059 15.7146 34.5059 17.2790 17.2769 17.2747 10.2384 18.9577 19.9738 88.4507 82.3925 44.2564
2025-03-27 26.9686 13.8746 50.6826 15.2667 57.9789 15.9125 34.9707 17.5702 17.5680 17.5657 10.4107 18.9555 19.8635 90.2289 84.2106 44.7319
Daily Change -0.4%-0.45%-0.97%-1.06%-1.16%-1.24%-1.33%-1.66%-1.66%-1.66%-1.66%0.01%0.56%-1.97%-2.16%-1.06%
Month to Date -0.82%-0.94%-2.24%-2.49%-2.74%-2.95%-3.16%-3.86%-3.86%-3.86%-3.86%0.33%-0.18%-6.17%-7.59%0.96%
Year to Date 0.44%0.37%-0.51%-0.66%-0.83%-0.97%-1.12%-1.73%-1.73%-1.73%-1.72%1.09%2.54%-4.82%-8.61%5.63%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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