February 2021

Allocation Percentages for February 2021
F Fund

100%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

0%

I?ll get right to the point. I?m moving all my new contributions and existing TSP investments to the F Fund for February. I am concerned enough about the moves in the market right now that any upside gains we might see in February would come with significant risk. January was a solid month for the S Fund, but I see systemic risk right now causing significant levels of uncertainty, and with uncertainty comes volatility and risk. The contributors to this uncertainty are as follows: - Game Stop. Not the company per se, but what we discovered about the market dynamics facing us in 2021. The traders exploited a hedge fund taking excessive risk, and I think a traffic accident is going to happen ahead of us. The drivers of this accident are (1) Low interest rates (drives asset inflation), (2) Stimulus checks (free money (not unlike low interest rates), (3) Newly tapped communication methods (hive mind) (4) Lockdown (limited outlets for disposable income - bars, trips, etc.), and last, but not least, (5) Populism (rebellion against the system, no matter the consequences). Investigations and new regulations have been demanded, which can be highly disruptive as everyone will have to adapt to the new changes. - Executive Orders (EO). President Biden has signed over 24 EOs. Unfortunately, unlike actual laws, EOs are more ambiguous, lack legal standing in some cases, and can cause legal actions creating more uncertainty on certain industries, Oil and Gas, just to name one. If I was a trader, I would say get into the market and exploit the volatility, but I?m not. I want certainty and low volatility. I?m going to pump the breaks as I just saw a Ford Mustang cut off a Ferrari. I continue to keep investing, just in the bonds and the F Fund for now.
           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2024-11-22 26.8071 13.8108 51.0235 15.4040 58.6345 16.1249 35.5088 17.9670 17.9648 17.9624 10.6429 18.6680 19.5294 94.1871 96.2559 42.6555
2024-11-21 26.7630 13.7847 50.8402 15.3435 58.3842 16.0512 35.3363 17.8624 17.8602 17.8579 10.5814 18.6658 19.5205 93.8581 94.6413 42.4370
Daily Change 0.16%0.19%0.36%0.39%0.43%0.46%0.49%0.59%0.59%0.59%0.58%0.01%0.05%0.35%1.71%0.51%
Month to Date 1.08%1.22%2.18%2.37%2.56%2.72%2.89%3.49%3.49%3.49%3.46%0.26%-0.33%4.74%11.13%-1.08%
Year to Date 7.64%8.67%12.8%13.65%14.52%15.26%16.02%18.82%18.82%18.82%0%3.92%1.6%26.66%24.85%6.16%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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