International Shift - December Allocation

Allocation Percentages for December 2022
F Fund

0%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

100%

A strong month in the books!  Although this month was good, we do have some significant issues to deal with.  We remain in a recovery from the very shallow recession due to Q1 and Q2 GDP both being negative.  GDP for Q3 was revised upwards, but there are negative trends in the economy. Unemployment, while still very low, looks like it might be threatened by layoffs in the technology sector and a weakening housing market.  To temper these potential drags on the economy, the Federal Reserve finally showed their hand a bit more today and indicated a reduction in the pace of rate hikes, but he also indicated a higher target than we have lived with for the past 30 years.  I have stated many times I agree with the Federal Reserve and their interest rate hikes to get inflation under control.  That was an easy position for me to take, when they stop their interest rate hikes is the much harder prediction and we got some insight into Powell's thinking today and he must be seeing a cooling economy and a possible double dip recession. 

 

International headwinds on the economy, namely the disruption in China due to their zero COVID policy also seems to possibly be resolving itself, but the unrest may provide an inflection point to disrupt their entire economy for an extended period, however, international stocks look stronger now than they have been in a long time since they have had a chance to adjust to higher energy prices and the Russo-Ukraine War.

 

All of this is culminating in the movement of my investments to 100% I Fund.  I have not invested in the I Fund since Nov 2019 and before that March 2018.  Potential weakness in the US economy, coupled with the international notes listed above are causing my system to point strongly I Fund.  Of note, this is not just chasing the returns we saw this month.  Many factors point to the I Fund and it is the combination of these factors (e.g., macro-economic, risk, reward) that has me making such a dramatic shift.

 

I'm still positive on the US stock market and the economy, and the fear of a dramatic crash has been reduced.  Overall, across all Funds, we will see a more tempered December and January compared to November, but I remain cautious about many of the unknowns in unemployment and international unrest.  Keep investing!   

           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 L 2075 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2025-06-30 27.9579 54.0610 16.3639 62.4426 17.2069 37.9654 19.3201 19.3178 19.3155 11.4479 10.0000 19.1711 20.2603 98.6743 92.0521 49.7247
2025-06-26 27.8773 53.7489 16.2611 62.0189 17.0827 37.6752 19.1450 19.1428 19.1404 11.3441 0.0000 19.1616 20.2330 97.6432 91.4042 49.3273
Daily Change 0.29%0.58%0.63%0.68%0.73%0.77%0.91%0.91%0.91%0.92%INF%0.05%0.13%1.06%0.71%0.81%
Month to Date 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Year to Date 4.55%7.17%7.62%8.06%8.44%8.79%9.88%9.88%9.88%9.9%0%2.22%4.02%6.18%2.11%18.69%
Details L Income L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 L 2075 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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