International Shift - December Allocation

Allocation Percentages for December 2022
F Fund

0%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

100%

A strong month in the books!  Although this month was good, we do have some significant issues to deal with.  We remain in a recovery from the very shallow recession due to Q1 and Q2 GDP both being negative.  GDP for Q3 was revised upwards, but there are negative trends in the economy. Unemployment, while still very low, looks like it might be threatened by layoffs in the technology sector and a weakening housing market.  To temper these potential drags on the economy, the Federal Reserve finally showed their hand a bit more today and indicated a reduction in the pace of rate hikes, but he also indicated a higher target than we have lived with for the past 30 years.  I have stated many times I agree with the Federal Reserve and their interest rate hikes to get inflation under control.  That was an easy position for me to take, when they stop their interest rate hikes is the much harder prediction and we got some insight into Powell's thinking today and he must be seeing a cooling economy and a possible double dip recession. 

 

International headwinds on the economy, namely the disruption in China due to their zero COVID policy also seems to possibly be resolving itself, but the unrest may provide an inflection point to disrupt their entire economy for an extended period, however, international stocks look stronger now than they have been in a long time since they have had a chance to adjust to higher energy prices and the Russo-Ukraine War.

 

All of this is culminating in the movement of my investments to 100% I Fund.  I have not invested in the I Fund since Nov 2019 and before that March 2018.  Potential weakness in the US economy, coupled with the international notes listed above are causing my system to point strongly I Fund.  Of note, this is not just chasing the returns we saw this month.  Many factors point to the I Fund and it is the combination of these factors (e.g., macro-economic, risk, reward) that has me making such a dramatic shift.

 

I'm still positive on the US stock market and the economy, and the fear of a dramatic crash has been reduced.  Overall, across all Funds, we will see a more tempered December and January compared to November, but I remain cautious about many of the unknowns in unemployment and international unrest.  Keep investing!   

           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2025-03-28 26.8594 13.8120 50.1902 15.1042 57.3059 15.7146 34.5059 17.2790 17.2769 17.2747 10.2384 18.9577 19.9738 88.4507 82.3925 44.2564
2025-03-27 26.9686 13.8746 50.6826 15.2667 57.9789 15.9125 34.9707 17.5702 17.5680 17.5657 10.4107 18.9555 19.8635 90.2289 84.2106 44.7319
Daily Change -0.4%-0.45%-0.97%-1.06%-1.16%-1.24%-1.33%-1.66%-1.66%-1.66%-1.66%0.01%0.56%-1.97%-2.16%-1.06%
Month to Date -0.82%-0.94%-2.24%-2.49%-2.74%-2.95%-3.16%-3.86%-3.86%-3.86%-3.86%0.33%-0.18%-6.17%-7.59%0.96%
Year to Date 0.44%0.37%-0.51%-0.66%-0.83%-0.97%-1.12%-1.73%-1.73%-1.73%-1.72%1.09%2.54%-4.82%-8.61%5.63%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
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