International Shift - December Allocation

Allocation Percentages for December 2022
F Fund

0%

C Fund

0%

S Fund

0%

I Fund

100%

A strong month in the books!  Although this month was good, we do have some significant issues to deal with.  We remain in a recovery from the very shallow recession due to Q1 and Q2 GDP both being negative.  GDP for Q3 was revised upwards, but there are negative trends in the economy. Unemployment, while still very low, looks like it might be threatened by layoffs in the technology sector and a weakening housing market.  To temper these potential drags on the economy, the Federal Reserve finally showed their hand a bit more today and indicated a reduction in the pace of rate hikes, but he also indicated a higher target than we have lived with for the past 30 years.  I have stated many times I agree with the Federal Reserve and their interest rate hikes to get inflation under control.  That was an easy position for me to take, when they stop their interest rate hikes is the much harder prediction and we got some insight into Powell's thinking today and he must be seeing a cooling economy and a possible double dip recession. 

 

International headwinds on the economy, namely the disruption in China due to their zero COVID policy also seems to possibly be resolving itself, but the unrest may provide an inflection point to disrupt their entire economy for an extended period, however, international stocks look stronger now than they have been in a long time since they have had a chance to adjust to higher energy prices and the Russo-Ukraine War.

 

All of this is culminating in the movement of my investments to 100% I Fund.  I have not invested in the I Fund since Nov 2019 and before that March 2018.  Potential weakness in the US economy, coupled with the international notes listed above are causing my system to point strongly I Fund.  Of note, this is not just chasing the returns we saw this month.  Many factors point to the I Fund and it is the combination of these factors (e.g., macro-economic, risk, reward) that has me making such a dramatic shift.

 

I'm still positive on the US stock market and the economy, and the fear of a dramatic crash has been reduced.  Overall, across all Funds, we will see a more tempered December and January compared to November, but I remain cautious about many of the unknowns in unemployment and international unrest.  Keep investing!   

           
  

TSP FUND QUOTES

Date L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
2024-11-22 26.8071 13.8108 51.0235 15.4040 58.6345 16.1249 35.5088 17.9670 17.9648 17.9624 10.6429 18.6680 19.5294 94.1871 96.2559 42.6555
2024-11-21 26.7630 13.7847 50.8402 15.3435 58.3842 16.0512 35.3363 17.8624 17.8602 17.8579 10.5814 18.6658 19.5205 93.8581 94.6413 42.4370
Daily Change 0.16%0.19%0.36%0.39%0.43%0.46%0.49%0.59%0.59%0.59%0.58%0.01%0.05%0.35%1.71%0.51%
Month to Date 1.08%1.22%2.18%2.37%2.56%2.72%2.89%3.49%3.49%3.49%3.46%0.26%-0.33%4.74%11.13%-1.08%
Year to Date 7.64%8.67%12.8%13.65%14.52%15.26%16.02%18.82%18.82%18.82%0%3.92%1.6%26.66%24.85%6.16%
Details L Income L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040 L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065 L 2070 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
TSP Coach